Let's Talk Money! with Joseph Hogue, CFA @[email protected]
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Welcome to your chance to create the financial future you de
Don't say I didn't warn you! Recommended RSP on the rotation in stocks, now up 0.6% versus a loss of 2.3% in S&P 500 and 4.2% in Nasdaq tech index. 😯 Some investors didn't want to hear it, thought that just by talking about the idea it would cause tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia to fall. Nation, the market does NOT work that way. You can't get emotional about your stocks and you need to think rationally about them...and be ready for what the market is telling you.
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🤔 What do you guys think of the GameStop and Roaring Kitty news? I know there are people out there that have made money trading these meme stocks but if you look at the charts on GME and AMC...it's only the investors that have got in before these big pops and then out quickly that have made anything. Far more investors have been burned, buying in after a big jump and then sticking around too long.
Fundamentally, the stocks are not good long-term investments. Both GME and AMC are bleeding hundreds of millions in cash flow each year and management has no real plan for changing that. Massive shareholder dilution through share issues and convertibles.
If you are investing in these stocks, what's your strategy? How are you investing to get around the big drops long-term and take advantage of the few pops?
Why Does Inflation Feel So High?
While the May CPI was a relief and brought back rate cut hopes, inflation still feels high for many Americans. The reason is that while prices in 'goods' are actually deflating, the bigger 'services' components are still at nearly 3.2% from last year. Consumers can pull back on goods purchases but cannot on many of the service components (housing and medical). The stickiness of the services inflation is likely to keep overall inflation high and disappoint investors for at least a few months or more.
🫨 Some thoughts on today's market selloff....
✅ Meta warning about lower revenue is likely just trying to lower estimates later in the year so they can beat (it's an old game management plays but the market never seems to catch on), it spooks investors across tech but isn't as bad as you think
✅ The lower earnings forecast is more though and is showing higher capex (spending) to grow AI ambitions which will also start coming through in other big tech names like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, etc...since these Mag 7 stocks make up such a big part of the S&P 500 market index and have accounted for the majority of earnings growth, lower forecasted earnings is what is really hitting the market today
✅ The GDP number wasn't bad, just surprising that it was so far below expectations (1.8% vs 2.4%) when everything else about the economy has beaten forecasts...odd thing though is it now supports earlier rate cuts which should be good for stocks.
I think the tech stocks story is the big deal today. Could drag stocks down another percent or two but fundamentals still good and all it will take is for tomorrow's PCE report to show lower inflation or for a Fed official to talk up rate cuts on slower GDP growth and we'll be higher again. Stay Strong Bow Tie Nation! 💪
🤔 What stocks are YOU watching to beat falling market prices? Three weeks ago, I surveyed the community and 41% of you said stocks would fall 5% to 15% from their peak (a stock correction but not a crash). Looks like you might be right with the market down two weeks in a row and looking weak. 🔥So which stocks are you buying or watching that you think will outperform the rest of the market as we work through this period of weakness?
😫 Does it feel like a stock's price always falls immediately after YOU buy it? It happens to all of us but is just your mind playing tricks on you. You see, we react to losses much more strongly than gains. It sucks to lose money and we feel it! That's why when you buy a stock and the price goes up or sideways, you don't remember it as happening as much as when the price drops. 💪 Stay strong Bow Tie Nation! Know yourself as an investor, do your research into the stocks you buy and you WILL MAKE MONEY!
Welcome to your chance to create the financial future you deserve. I spent more than a decade in stock analysis for private wealth management and venture capital but I love the face-to-face interaction we get here on YouTube. I pride myself on professional analysis you won't see anywhere else on YouTube!
Joseph Hogue is a financial expert and investment analyst. After serving in the Marine Corps, he started his career investing in real estate before becoming an investment analyst for some of the largest private investors. He's appeared on Bloomberg and on CNBC as an investment expert and has published ten books on investing. He holds a master's degree and the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Now he helps investors reach their financial goals and invest in the stock market with some of the same advice he used when working for the rich.
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